Economic Indicators
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Employment
Key labor market indicators that signal economic health and consumer spending power.
U-3: Official rate - unemployed workers actively seeking jobs.
U-6: Includes discouraged workers + part-time for economic reasons.
Unemployment Rate
Inflation
Price stability measures that influence Fed policy and purchasing power. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation.
Fed targets 2% annual inflation. YoY shows the 12-month trend; MoM shows recent momentum.
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE. Removes extreme price changes for a cleaner inflation signal. Fed targets 2%.
CPI Year-over-Year
Economic Growth
Measures of overall economic output and expansion. GDP is reported quarterly as a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR). The annualized growth rate shows what a full year of growth would look like at the current quarter's pace.
Inflation-adjusted economic output. Real GDP removes price changes to show actual growth in goods and services produced.
Total economic output at current prices. Includes both real growth and inflation effects.
The gap between nominal and real GDP growth, annualized. Measures broad price inflation across the entire economy — a wider gap signals higher inflation.
Official BEA annualized rate of real economic growth. 2-3% is considered healthy; negative growth for 2+ quarters indicates recession.
Fed Policy
Interest rate targets set by the Federal Reserve to manage inflation and employment.
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The Fed raises rates to cool inflation and lowers them to stimulate growth.
Federal Funds Rate
National Debt & Deficit
Federal government debt levels and annual budget deficits. Data from the U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data API.
Understanding Economic Indicators
Leading vs. Lagging Indicators
- Leading: Consumer Sentiment, Jobless Claims - predict future trends
- Coincident: GDP, Employment - reflect current conditions
- Lagging: Unemployment Rate, CPI - confirm trends after they occur
U-3 vs U-6 Unemployment
- U-3: Headline rate - only counts people actively job hunting
- U-6: Broader measure - adds discouraged workers and involuntary part-timers
- The gap between U-3 and U-6 reveals hidden labor market slack
- U-6 is typically 3-4 percentage points higher than U-3
CPI vs PCE Inflation
- CPI: Fixed basket of goods, updated less frequently
- PCE: Accounts for consumer substitution behavior
- PCE is typically 0.3-0.5% lower than CPI
- Fed targets 2% annual PCE inflation
Why These Indicators Matter
- Employment: Jobs drive consumer spending (70% of GDP)
- Inflation: Affects purchasing power and Fed policy
- GDP: Broad measure of economic health
- Fed Funds: Influences borrowing costs throughout the economy
Release Schedule
- Weekly (Thursdays): Initial Jobless Claims
- Monthly: Unemployment Rate (1st Friday), CPI (mid-month), Consumer Sentiment
- Quarterly: GDP (advance, 2nd, 3rd estimates)
- 8x/year: Fed Funds Rate (FOMC meetings)
Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) and the U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data API.
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