Investor Sentiment
Saturday, July 18, 2026
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) surveys its members weekly on their 6-month market outlook. This survey has been running since 1987 and is widely followed as a contrarian indicator of retail investor sentiment.
AAII Sentiment Trend
Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures how consumers feel about the economy, personal finances, and spending conditions. It's a leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives ~70% of GDP.
University of Michigan survey (1966 baseline = 100). Historical average is ~86. Readings below 60 indicate significant pessimism; above 100 signals strong optimism.
Consumer Sentiment
Understanding the Survey
What Each Response Means
- Bullish: Expecting stocks to rise over the next 6 months
- Neutral: Expecting stocks to stay relatively flat
- Bearish: Expecting stocks to decline over the next 6 months
Historical Averages
- Bullish: 37.5% (long-term average)
- Neutral: 31.5% (long-term average)
- Bearish: 31.0% (long-term average)
How to Use This Data
The AAII Sentiment Survey is primarily used as a contrarian indicator. This means extreme readings often signal the opposite of what the crowd expects.
Extreme Bullishness (above 50%)
- Suggests widespread optimism and potential complacency
- Historically associated with market tops or near-term pullbacks
- The crowd is often wrong at extremes
- Consider being more cautious with new positions
Extreme Bearishness (above 50%)
- Indicates widespread fear and pessimism
- Historically associated with market bottoms or buying opportunities
- "Be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett
- Often a good time to look for value
Important Caveats
- Sentiment is a secondary indicator - don't use it in isolation
- Extreme readings can persist longer than expected
- The survey reflects retail investor sentiment, not institutional
- Best used in combination with technical and fundamental analysis
- The survey is released every Thursday morning
For detailed charts and technical analysis, we recommend TradingView.